
One aspect of the MLB Draft League that sets itself apart from other collegiate summer leagues is its implementation of technology and data. With the help of each team’s data coordinators, prospects of the league have information and analytics available in real-time to help evaluate, scout, and develop their tools and game while it's distributed to the 30 Major League teams. With a month left in the season, here are our picks for this week’s Data Darlings:
RHP Xavier Lovett, Trenton
Lovett has been a workhorse since getting to Trenton, having 15 IP already through three games. He has a 2.35 ERA and a 1.17 WHIP while striking out 18 batters to only three walks. He is a very intriguing arm, only throwing two distinct pitches but from a 4’6” release height and nearly a complete sidearm delivery. This arm action makes his two pitches, a sinker and a slider, very deadly. The sinker, thrown 89% of the time, consistently gets below 0” IVB, averaging -2” IVB and getting 17” HB. It sits at 88-89 mph but gets up to 93 mph, while owning a 34% Whiff% and a 29% Chase%. His slider is a perfect secondary pitch, sitting at 79-80 mph and averaging 2” IVB and -5” HB. Despite his slider only being in the zone 19% of the time, it gets whiffs an eye-popping 80% of the time, to complement his arm-side heater as his putaway pitch. He has earned a 0% Barrel% and a 38% K%, while inducing ground balls 71% of the time. Lovett has continued to push his work load in Trenton as he transitions from a bullpen arm in college to a starter, gradually increasing his innings each start.

RHP Griffin Green, Frederick
Green’s seven games with the Keys impressed more than the league as his contract was purchased by the Cincinnati Reds on Sunday. His 2.57 ERA and 0.83 BAA made him a key piece in Frederick’s bullpen. He is a low-slot sinker thrower, and supplements that pitch well with a cutter and a slider while sometimes throwing a four-seam fastball as well. His sinker is his bread and butter, as he throws it 44% of the time. It sits 93-95 mph but has been up to 97 mph, while averaging 7” IVB and 17” HB, sometimes getting sub-0” IVB. His sinker has a 47% Whiff% and a staggering 36% IZ-Whiff%, the highest amongst his arsenal. His second pitch is his cutter, which he uses 25% of the time. It’s sharp and effective, usually sitting around 90-91 mph and averaging 3” IVB and 0” HB. His slider is an extension of his cutter, usually slightly softer and has more sweeping action, sitting at 86-86 mph and averages -9” HB. It finds the zone 52% of the time, while getting in-zone whiffs 33% of the time. While he has only thrown six four-seam fastballs, it still has a unique shape with 14” IVB. Ordinarily that would be a blemish on his arsenal, but with his low arm slot, extension (5’9”), and -4.5 VAA the fastball can be very effective and works well with his arsenal. Overall Green has been great at limiting damage, with a 0% Barrel% and a 86% GB%. He is a great whiff generator, getting whiffs 46% of the time while striking out opponents 45% of the time.

C DeMarckus Smiley, West Virginia
Smiley has been an awesome addition to the Black Bears’ roster, as he has accumulated two doubles and six RBI in his first 10 games with the team. His hitting ability has been on full display with a .419/.486/.484 slash line while stealing two bases. The lefty slugger has lots of pop, as he boasts a 92-mph average exit velocity, with a 36% HHB% and a 14% Barrel%. Although he displays his strength, he is much more than just a power bat. He has a .472 wOBA, which is sixth best in the league, and is a measure at how productive he is as a batter. His expected stats are a great way to understand how good of a hitter he is as well, with a .357 xBA, .445 xOBP and .448 xSLG all of which are top 10 marks in the league amongst batters with 20 or more PAs. The expected stats are very similar to his actual stats which is indicative of a productive hitter, not a lucky one. He does well at limiting mistakes, by keeping his whiff rate to a 20% mark which keeps his strikeout rate at 22%.
RHP Grant Manning, Mahoning Valley
Manning is a classic three pitch guy: fastball, changeup, slider. His fastball is hard and effective, sitting at 90-93 mph and 16” IVB while getting a 43% Whiff% and a 60% In-Zone Whiff%. His changeup is really deceptive, throwing it at 75 mph, a nearly 20 mph difference in velocity from his fastball. It also spins significantly less than his other pitches, only at 1600 rpms and averages 7” IVB and 11” HB. His slider is his most relied on pitch, using it 75% of the time. It sits at 82-85 mph and averages 3” IVB and 0” HB while getting whiffs 38% of the time. Manning sets himself apart from others with a high, 6’4” arm slot while having 5’5” of extension. Manning’s stuff has exceptional value, having a 44% Chase% and a 42% Whiff%. He also is a great strikeout pitcher to the tune of a 46% K% while also boasting a 0% BB%, the fourth-best ratio in the league.

1B Carson Hornung, Mahoning Valley
Horning has had a great Draft League season for the Scrappers, posting a .366 AVG with a .441 OBP and a .476 SLG, good for a .917 OPS. In his 21 games, he has 30 hits, seven of which were for extra bases with one home run. While the Scrappers’ first baseman's stats on the field are impressive, his game extends beyond the box score, with eye-catching metrics as well. He holds a 7.4% K rate, good for top 10 in the league, while walking 15% of the time. He does great at limiting mistakes with a 22% chase rate and an 8.2% whiff rate, leading to his above average BB%. All of these parts of his approach give him an xwOBA of .412, the sixth best in the league but the best for batters with >50 PAs. All of his expected numbers are really good, for a slash of .363/.453/.467, keeping very close to his actual statistics. Which means that he is not getting lucky with his swings, he is just performing to that level over the course of the season, a great testament to how strong of a hitter Hornung really is. Not only does he perform as good as expected, but he also holds a 36% HHB% and a 10% Barrel% with a max exit velocity of 104 mph. His great on field performance mixed with quality expected stats and raw power ability has made Hornung one of the premier bats in the Draft League.
RHP Carter Holjes, State College
Holjes has been arguably the most consistent arm in the Draft League all year. In his 13 games out of the Spilkes’ pen he has a 1.09 ERA, 1.01 WHIP and 36 strikeouts to eight walks. His arsenal consists of a four-seam fastball, a depthy changeup and a sweepy slider. His slider sits 79-81 mph and averages 0” IVB and -6” HB while getting whiffs at a 22% clip. His changeup is a great secondary pitch, throwing it the second most to his fastball, tricking batters with 1700 rpms of spin and nearly a 10-mph velo differential. The changeup has been just as effective a pitch as well, holding batters to a .000 average and an eye-catching 88% Whiff rate in the second half. The righty’s fastball sits at 93-94 mph and tops out at 96 mph while averaging 15” IVB, sometimes reaching 20”, and 10” HB. His fastball also carries some weight to it, inducing a 27% Whiff% compared to a 24% Whiff% in the zone. Holjes is another great strikeout pitcher, with a 40% K% to a 5% BB%. Paired with his great arsenal and high Whiff% (37%), Holjes has demonstrated an ability to come out of the bullpen in long relief effectively.

3B Cole Caruso, State College
Caruso has started the second half red-hot for the first half champs, with a .358/.417/.495 slash line and 14 RBI. He has been one of the most consistent hitters for the Spikes with a .430 xwOBA and only a 6% K%. The strikeout rate is kept low by only chasing pitches out of the zone 24% of the time while whiffing only 14.9% of the time, which also have contributed to his 12.2% BB%. The Spikes’ third baseman also has great pop with a 28% HHB rate and a 15% Barrel% while sporting a .544 xSLG, a top 10 mark in the League. Caruso is an all around bat, someone who you would want in your lineup every day. He hits the ball in the air 65% of the time, over half of which are line drives. He is also excellent at hitting right-handed pitching, despite being a righty himself. He has a 21% Barrel% and only a 3% K% against righties, while having a .601 wOBA and a .552 AVG.
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